UP Election Survey 2027: Latest Poll Projects BJP Alliance at 267 Seats, SP Alliance at 132
Lucknow: With the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections scheduled for 2027, a fresh opinion survey has projected a substantial lead for the BJP-led alliance in the state. According to the survey conducted by News Leader and Matrize, the BJP alliance could win 267 of Uttar Pradesh’s 403 Assembly seats if elections were held under the conditions measured by the poll.
The survey projects the Samajwadi Party-led alliance at 132 seats, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and other parties are projected to win two seats each. These figures are survey projections and should not be treated as an election result.
BJP Alliance Projected to Win 267 Seats
According to the latest survey, the BJP alone is projected to win 246 seats. Its alliance partners are projected to add another 21 seats.
The projected alliance tally includes:
- BJP: 246 seats
- Apna Dal (Sonelal): 9 seats
- Nishad Party: 4 seats
- Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD): 3 seats
- Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP): 1 seat
Together, these figures take the BJP alliance to a projected 267 seats in the 403-member Assembly.
SP Alliance Projected at 132 Seats
The survey puts the Samajwadi Party alliance at 132 seats.
The SP itself is projected to win 125 seats, while the Congress is projected to secure seven seats.
The projection comes at a time when political activity has intensified in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 Assembly election. The SP and Congress have also seen differences in public messaging among some state-level leaders in recent weeks.
BJP Projected to Lead in Vote Share
The survey also provides an estimate of the vote share of the major political groupings.
The BJP is projected to receive around 44% of the vote, while the SP-led alliance is estimated at approximately 38%.
The survey puts the BSP at around 0.8%, with other parties collectively estimated at about 10%.
These vote-share numbers are estimates from the survey and can change significantly before voting takes place.
What Happened in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Election?
The latest projection can be compared with the actual results of the 2022 Assembly election.
In 2022, the BJP won 255 seats, while the Samajwadi Party won 111 seats. The BSP won one seat and Congress won two seats. BJP allies Apna Dal (Sonelal) and Nishad Party won 12 and six seats respectively.
The BJP received approximately 41.3% of the vote, while the SP’s vote share was around 32.1%.
The 2022 results were themselves different from the 2017 election, when the BJP won 312 seats.
Other Surveys Show Different Political Indicators
It is important to note that not every recent survey has produced the same picture of Uttar Pradesh politics.
For example, an August 2026 India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey projected a different picture for a hypothetical Lok Sabha election, with the INDIA bloc projected to win 41 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 parliamentary seats and the NDA 38. That survey specifically cautioned that Lok Sabha projections should not be treated as a prediction for the 2027 Assembly election.
Meanwhile, the News Leader-Matrize survey’s earlier regional figures projected the BJP alliance ahead in both Awadh and Bundelkhand. In Awadh, it projected 77 of 118 seats for the BJP alliance and 40 for the SP alliance. In Bundelkhand, the BJP alliance was projected to win 17 of 19 seats.
2027 Election Battle Remains Open
The latest survey provides a snapshot of voter sentiment at the time of the survey, rather than a final forecast of the 2027 election result. Campaigns, alliances, candidates, local issues, voter turnout and political developments over the coming months can all affect the eventual outcome.
With all major parties preparing for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, further surveys and regional assessments are expected as the election approaches.